Managing Risk

Trading memecoins and low-cap tokens is inherently risky. This guide helps you manage that risk.


The Reality of Memecoin Trading

Most Tokens Fail

  • 95%+ of memecoins go to zero

  • Even "good" picks can dump

  • Rugs and scams are common

The Goal

Not to avoid all losses, but to:

  • Win bigger than you lose

  • Preserve capital for good opportunities

  • Stay in the game long-term


Position Sizing

The Golden Rule

Never risk more than you can afford to lose.

Sizing Guidelines

Account Size
Max Per Trade
Why

< 1 SOL

0.05-0.1 SOL

Learning, preserve capital

1-5 SOL

0.1-0.25 SOL

Still building

5-20 SOL

0.25-0.5 SOL

Moderate positions

20+ SOL

0.5-1 SOL

Can take larger risk

Position Sizing Formula

Never Go All-In

  • Keep at least 50% in SOL as reserve

  • Spread across multiple positions

  • Always have funds for opportunities


Diversification

Why Diversify?

One rug shouldn't wipe you out.

Portfolio Allocation

Category
Allocation
Risk Level

SOL Reserve

30-50%

Low

Active Trades

30-50%

High

Long-term Holds

10-20%

Medium

Number of Positions

  • Beginners: 3-5 positions max

  • Intermediate: 5-10 positions

  • Advanced: Manage more if you can track


Taking Profits

The Biggest Mistake

Watching gains disappear by not selling.

Profit-Taking Strategy

Ladder Out:

Milestone
Action

2x

Sell 25% (recover half investment)

3x

Sell 25% (now playing with profit)

5x

Sell 25% (lock in gains)

10x+

Decide: sell rest or hold moonbag

Sell Initials Early

At 2x, sell 50% to recover your investment:

  • Remaining position is "free"

  • Zero stress holding

  • Can wait for bigger moves


Cutting Losses

When to Cut

  • Token showing consistent weakness

  • Red flags discovered after buying

  • Better opportunity elsewhere

  • Hit your stop loss

Mental Stop Losses

Set a loss limit before buying:

  • "I'll sell if down 30%"

  • "I'll sell if liquidity drops below X"

  • "I'll sell if key support breaks"

Don't

  • Hope it comes back (it usually doesn't)

  • Average down without strong thesis

  • Ignore red flags


Risk Checklist

Before Every Trade

Red Flags to Avoid


Common Mistakes

Mistake 1: Oversizing

Problem: Putting 50% of account in one trade

Fix: Max 5-10% per position

Mistake 2: No Profit Taking

Problem: Watching 10x become 0x

Fix: Always take some profits on the way up

Mistake 3: Revenge Trading

Problem: Trying to win back losses immediately

Fix: Take a break after big loss

Mistake 4: FOMO Buys

Problem: Buying because something is pumping

Fix: Have criteria for entries, stick to them

Mistake 5: Ignoring Red Flags

Problem: "It'll be different this time"

Fix: If it looks like a rug, it probably is


Risk by Token Type

New Launches (Pump.fun)

Risk
Level

Rug probability

Very High

Volatility

Extreme

Reward potential

Very High

Strategy: Tiny positions, sell fast

Established Memes

Risk
Level

Rug probability

Lower

Volatility

High

Reward potential

High

Strategy: Moderate positions, take profits

Utility Tokens

Risk
Level

Rug probability

Low

Volatility

Medium

Reward potential

Medium

Strategy: Larger positions okay, longer holds


Bankroll Management

Starting Capital

Only deposit what you can lose:

  • Not rent money

  • Not savings

  • "Entertainment" budget only

Reloading Rules

If you lose your bankroll:

  1. Take a break (1+ weeks)

  2. Analyze what went wrong

  3. Only reload if you have edge

  4. Start with smaller size

Growing Your Account

When winning:

  • Withdraw some profits

  • Increase position sizes slowly

  • Don't let lifestyle creep

  • Stay humble


Psychology

Emotions Kill Profits

Emotion
Leads To
Solution

Greed

Holding too long

Set take-profit rules

Fear

Selling too early

Trust your analysis

FOMO

Bad entries

Wait for your setup

Tilt

Revenge trading

Take breaks

Mindset Tips

  1. Expect losses - They're part of trading

  2. Process over outcome - Good decisions > lucky trades

  3. Stay humble - Markets can humble anyone

  4. Keep learning - Every loss is a lesson


Emergency Protocol

If You're On a Losing Streak

  1. Stop trading - Take 24-48 hours off

  2. Review trades - What went wrong?

  3. Reduce size - Cut position sizes in half

  4. Focus on quality - Only A+ setups

If You Lost Big

  1. Don't chase - Worst thing you can do

  2. Accept it - Loss is real, move on

  3. Analyze - Was it bad luck or bad process?

  4. Rebuild slowly - No rush


Quick Risk Rules

  1. Never risk > 5-10% per trade

  2. Always have an exit plan

  3. Take profits on the way up

  4. Cut losses, don't hope

  5. Diversify across positions

  6. Keep SOL reserve

  7. Don't trade emotional


Next Steps

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